Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 6.563430e-05 0.000079 0.000093 0.000110 0.000129 0.000149 0.000172
2025-03-02 4.595936e-05 0.000063 0.000083 0.000107 0.000137 0.000170 0.000211
2025-03-09 3.430300e-05 0.000052 0.000073 0.000102 0.000137 0.000178 0.000230
2025-03-16 2.734703e-05 0.000045 0.000069 0.000102 0.000143 0.000194 0.000259
2025-03-23 2.237901e-05 0.000041 0.000066 0.000101 0.000149 0.000207 0.000284
2025-03-30 1.812557e-05 0.000036 0.000062 0.000100 0.000153 0.000219 0.000308
2025-04-06 1.421853e-05 0.000031 0.000057 0.000097 0.000153 0.000226 0.000325
2025-04-13 1.146863e-05 0.000028 0.000054 0.000096 0.000156 0.000236 0.000346
2025-04-20 8.475822e-06 0.000023 0.000049 0.000091 0.000153 0.000237 0.000356
2025-04-27 6.906947e-06 0.000021 0.000047 0.000090 0.000157 0.000248 0.000377
2025-05-04 5.721325e-06 0.000019 0.000045 0.000091 0.000161 0.000259 0.000400
2025-05-11 4.896920e-06 0.000018 0.000045 0.000092 0.000167 0.000274 0.000427
2025-05-18 3.797577e-06 0.000016 0.000043 0.000093 0.000173 0.000289 0.000457
2025-05-25 2.491431e-06 0.000013 0.000039 0.000089 0.000172 0.000294 0.000475
2025-06-01 1.575460e-06 0.000011 0.000035 0.000085 0.000170 0.000298 0.000491
2025-06-08 1.080580e-06 0.000009 0.000033 0.000084 0.000174 0.000310 0.000517
2025-06-15 7.492426e-07 0.000008 0.000032 0.000084 0.000178 0.000323 0.000546
2025-06-22 4.731035e-07 0.000007 0.000030 0.000083 0.000181 0.000334 0.000571
2025-06-29 2.525405e-07 0.000006 0.000028 0.000081 0.000181 0.000339 0.000589
2025-07-06 1.336964e-07 0.000005 0.000026 0.000079 0.000182 0.000349 0.000612
2025-07-13 4.161441e-08 0.000004 0.000023 0.000075 0.000178 0.000348 0.000620
2025-07-20 1.568409e-08 0.000003 0.000022 0.000074 0.000181 0.000359 0.000646
2025-07-27 4.839542e-09 0.000003 0.000021 0.000075 0.000186 0.000372 0.000675